Entering his third NFL season, Dalton Kincaid looks ready to recapture—and surpass—his standout rookie form. With a loaded offseason and strong camp signs, here’s why 2025 could be his breakout year.
đź”™ From Rookie Superstar to Sophomore Struggles
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2023 rookie heroics: Kincaid shattered expectations with 73 receptions for 673 yards, setting a franchise rookie record for tight ends.
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2024 setbacks: A torn PCL he played through hampered his snaps, targets, and catch rate. He finished with just 44 catches, 448 yards, and a key drop in the AFC Championship.
🏋️♂️ Offseason Overhaul: Stronger and Healthier
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PCL recovery focus: Kincaid spent the spring fully rehabbing his knee. He credited strength coach Will Greenberg for a tailored routine emphasizing lower-body stability and durability.
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Winter training upgrade: Reports confirm Kincaid added lean muscle—designed specifically for tight-end physicality—and improved explosiveness in short-area routes.
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Chemistry-building OTAs: Early media glimpses were promising. While media focus was on new additions like Elijah Moore, Kincaid notably appeared confident and connected with Josh Allen in previews.
🏋️ Signals from Minicamp & Training Camp
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Minicamp buzz: During mandatory minicamp in June, coaches noted Kincaid “impressed with several catches” and appeared physically stronger heading into camp.
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Camp breakout candidate: ESPN analysts labeled him a top “breakout candidate” for 2025, highlighting improved strength and renewed role in camp’s early practices.
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Practice buzz: Yahoo Sports scouts praised his “impressive training camp” start. They said he’s regaining chemistry and route sharpness.
đź”® What 2025 Should Look Like
| Metric / Area | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (Target) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 73 | 44 | 60+ |
| Receiving Yards | 673 | 448 | 700+ |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 | 5+ |
| Snap Share % | – | ~56–60% | 60%+ |
| Catch Rate (qualified) | – | Lowest TE rate | Top-15% |
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Stat breakout: A rebound to ~60 catches, 700+ yards, and increased red-zone efficiency would show clear growth.
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Target reliability: Watch his drop rate and contested catches—key to rebuilding trust with Allen.
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Camp storyline: A strong showing in real-time drills, third-down sessions, and preseason red-zone would create buzz—and stats.
⚠️ Watchpoints & Questions
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Durability: Will the knee hold up through camp? Even minor flare-ups could limit early-season snaps.
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Competition & snap counts: Dawson Knox and rookies Jackson Hawes/Davidson amount to depth—but Kincaid is clearly favored. Still, any drop in punch diminishes leverage.
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Route mastery: Can he sharpen route timing and release to avoid Year‑2’s inconsistencies?
🗣️ Questions...
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“Will Kincaid’s offseason work be obvious in Week 1?”
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“If he hits 60+ catches, do the Bills pick up his fifth-year option?”
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“How does he rank versus other top TEs this year?”
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“Is Kincaid more important than James Cook or one of the rookie DBs?”
âś… Final Take
Dalton Kincaid’s third year is a turning point. After an elite rookie season and a sophomore slump, he’s set offbeat with superior offseason preparation and strong initial camp form. If he stays healthy and trust in Allen sharpens, Kincaid isn’t just earning his spot—he’s becoming the reliable, dynamic tight end Buffalo expected when they invested a first-round pick. His 2025 campaign could redefine the TE role in Buffalo’s offense, making him one of the AFC’s most compelling breakout stories.

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