The Bills are 1–0 after a fourth-quarter fever dream against Baltimore. What a game! Now it’s a classic September trap setup: early road divisional game, a Jets team with a blooming identity, and a Bills defense that just took a body blow in the run game. It matters... banking wins now is how you host in January.
What’s new with the Jets (and why it matters)
Aaron Glenn’s defense = way more man coverage. Week 1, the Jets ran man at a top-5 rate. Sauce Gardner was elite; the rest of the secondary sprung leaks (coverage busts, missed assignments). Man coverage vs Josh Allen is a double-edged sword:
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Allen shreds zone with patience (we saw it) and will nickel-and-dime.
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Against heavy man, if you don’t have a real spy, Josh kills you as a runner. Last season he was the highest-graded QB vs man overall, largely because of his scramble/run grade. If the Jets turn their backs and Quincy Williams (or anyone) isn’t perfect as a spy, Allen’s legs become an explosive play engine.
Jets’ offensive identity: run it, then run it again. 39 carries for 182 yards in Week 1 (top-5 volume, top-5 output). They smartly ran away from PIT’s T.J. Watt; expect a similar plan to run away from Greg Rousseau and stress Buffalo’s edge integrity and second-level fits. With Breece Hall’s burst and Braelon Allen’s downhill style, the combination tests gap discipline and tackling.
Culture change: Glenn benched/cut on-field mistakes immediately (Xavier Gibson after the KR fumble). The Jets are playing clean, intolerance-for-errors football. That matters in coin-flip spots like special teams and 3rd downs.
Where Buffalo should press
1) Force Fields to be a pocket QB. Keep the cage. Outside contain > inside squeeze. Make him work full-field progressions when Christian Benford is on Garrett Wilson. If Fields is winning from the well, tip your cap; don’t give him layups on keepers and scrambles.
2) Use their man coverage against them. Joe Brady will spam man-beaters: stacks, bunch, crossers, whip/option routes for Khalil Shakir (if active)/Elijah Moore, plus Dalton Kincaid on the seam. If Sauce travels with Keon Coleman, that’s fine... win everywhere else and let Keon pick your spots (slants, digs, stop-and-go when Sauce plays trail).
3) Let Josh be Josh in the air and on the ground. If the Jets sit in man, call/design the occasional QB draw and keepers, but the big value is scramble rules. Get Cook/Kincaid/Shakir tuned to work back to 17. If the spy isn’t elite, Allen’s legs flip downs.
4) Hammer the RB pass game. Make NY tackle James Cook, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis in space... angle/arrow/screens. It keeps Buffalo ahead of the sticks and blunts the Jets’ rush.
5) Situational football is greater than style points. These Bills–Ravens/Jets types always swing on one turnover and red-zone math. Don’t give away short fields. Take the three when it’s right. Make them be perfect.
The uncomfortable truth and the fix
Buffalo’s run defense was rough: missed tackles, slow shed, poor edge integrity. Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard had outlier down games; that has to snap back. The plan:
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Edges: set hard outside, spill to help... no free corner for zone-read.
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Interior: first step vertical; penetration ruins duo/inside zone. The original thought would have been to rotate Ed Oliver/DaQuan Jones, sprinkle TJ Sanders/Deone Walker for fresh legs, but keep the pad level right. With Oliver in a walking boot, the Bills will need to look at other options for depth.
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LBs: trigger downhill with better landmarks and finish. Two-yard gains, not leaky fives.
Matchups that swing it
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Sauce Gardner vs Keon Coleman. If Keon holds his own or it's even a draw, NY must allocate help... windows open for Kincaid/Knox and Shakir/Moore.
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Garrett Wilson vs Benford/CB2. Win this, and the Jets’ pass game narrows to play-action shots and checkdowns.
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Jets interior OL vs Bills DTs. Sanders or Deone Walker/Jones vs a run-first plan... penetration is everything. If Buffalo steals early downs, Fields faces long 3rds.
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Spy vs 17. If the Jets keep living in man, who’s the answer? Quincy Williams is fast, but it’s a tall ask for four quarters.
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Special teams. Quiet competence is the assignment. Matt Prater and new punter Cameron Johnston stabilize the floor, hopefully; avoid the “one play” that flips this game.
Injuries/notes to monitor
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Bills: Taron Johnson (quad) DNP to start the week; Tre’Davious White practiced; Maxwell Hairston still on IR. Special teams reset (Prater, Johnston). Ed Oliver is out and is week to week.
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Jets: Mason Taylor (ankle) trending doubtful; KR Kene Nwangwu (hamstring) iffy; return unit turnover after Week 1 fumble.
What it looks like if…
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Bills continue to roll: Run fits tighten; Allen punishes man with legs and quick game; Kincaid moves chains; defense steals one turnover.
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Jets steal it: Breece pops explosives, Fields extends drives with keepers, Jets win possession/field position, and Sauce erases Keon without paying elsewhere.
Prediction
The Jets’ run game continues being their focus and Glenn’s man coverage will create some tough drives... But Buffalo’s QB is the best player in the NFL, and the offense has too many answers versus man to stall for long.
Bills 27, Jets 23.
Allen adds 40–60 rushing yards on scrambles, Kincaid is the third-down grown-up, defense bounces back and Prater/Johnston keep special teams drama off the script.
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