Solving the Curtis Samuel Problem

Curtis Samuel came to Buffalo with high hopes following his time with the Commanders and Panthers. I think the thought was, he did a lot with poor quarterback play and poor offenses, he should be a solid weapon on a high-powered offense led by Josh Allen. Let's take a quick look at who Samuel was and who he is now and what options we have.


Career Stats & Highlights

The sweet spot in his career was from 2019 - 2023 (leaving out 2021 due to injury and excessive time missed: 64 games played, 257 receptions, 385 targets, 2747 yards, 17 touchdowns and 137 first downs. And that's with some rather suspect quarterback play. 

  • His most explosive year: 2020 with the Panthers — 77 catches, 851 yards, 3 receiving TDs, and added value as a runner (200 yards, 2 rushing TDs)

  • Known for his blazing speed (around 4.31 40-yard dash) and versatility—he’s lined up at WR, handled rushing attempts, and returned kicks

Bills Production & Cost

  • In 2024, Samuel's production was underwhelming: just 31 catches for 253 yards and 1 TD over 14 games — a far cry from his earlier years

  • He signed a 3-year, $24M contract, with $15M guaranteed. His cap hit for 2025 is approximately $9.7M

  • Cutting Samuel would cost the Bills an $8.6M dead-cap hit, saving only about $430K — not much relief

  • A trade could net $7.3M in cap savings with a reduced dead-cap impact, but only if a team is willing to take him on and he passes a physical

What’s Next? Paths Ahead for Samuel

Option Pros Cons
Keep Familiar with playbook, valuable in playoff bursts If injuries persist, may cinch a bench role
Cut Acknowledges underperformance Minimal cap savings and high dead-cap cost
Trade Maximum financial upside Hard to find partner given injury concerns
Pay Cut Signal of good faith, keeps roster flexibility Might be seen as a demotion

Reports from Heavy.com and Bleacher Report suggest some believe Samuel could be traded, offering veteran experience to teams like the 49ers—though they’d likely offer only late-round draft capital


Final Thought

Samuel is a talented athlete with a proven NFL track record, but availability has been his Achilles’ heel. Truthfully, even when healthy, it's been difficult to make a case for him being on the field. The Bills need playmakers that can be counted on. Whether that comes via a demotion role, restructuring, or even a trade remains to be seen—but one thing’s for sure: he’ll need to stay healthy and make us believe again.

Maybe we trade Samuel and a late round pick to another team, free up the cash and solve our safety problem by scooping up Justin Simmons. Personally, I like this. 


Takeaways

  • Versatility was Samuel’s selling point — but it didn’t translate to Buffalo’s stat sheet.

  • Cutting him isn’t practical; trading is his best chance at a fresh start and cap reprieve.

  • If he plays like 2020 Samuel again, keeping him might look like brilliance. But if not, his spot is anything but safe.

Hopefully Beane and staff learn that paying up for and stacking mid-value talent tends to give high priced mid-value results, at best. It's time to pay for quality and stack young higher end prospects on the cheap. 

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